Axioms = Statement of Experience

First 10 FREE, Plus 40 extra to members only

1. Locate the early speed: The first thing to look for when you begin to handicap a race is see which horse is going to break out of the gate first. Running style is very consistent in race horses and it is quite evident from looking at the past performances which horses love the lead. Compare the first quarter and half fractions to see who has the edge. Now you must determine how much pressure that front runner will face and does that horse have the class, fitness and heart to go gate to wire.
2. Visualize the race being run: Visualization is the key to success in any field. Successful people can see the process and actualization of an event before it occurs. After you have read the past performances of all horses in the race, visualize them breaking and settling in the first portion of the race and then the finishing kick to the finish line. Keep In mind any potential problems that may occur due to an unfavorable post position, too much pressure early, or traffic problems.
3. Be selective. ‘The Light Bulb Theory’: Many races are unplayable. There are times a handicapper will spend extra time looking at a race and still not have a definitive opinion. The light bulb goes on in a great handicapper’s head when an opportunity presents itself. Many years of reading the Racing Form provides the astute player with an intuition that will tell him to play or pass. When the ‘light bulb’ goes on the great players plunge!
4. Value: The most important concept in profitability: There is nothing more important to a serious player than getting value for his action. Straight win bettors must not accept less than 3-1 and the straight bettor must never bet to place. If you love a 5/2 shot play exactas to 3 or 4 horses with a great chance to finish second, or play trifectas. You may also want to single the nice 5/2 shot in pick three or pick fours. Don’t jump on a horse because it’s getting hammered at the windows. I’ve seen these horses go down to defeat with great regularity. This is where a great betting opportunity can arise. A favorite that doesn’t figure to be there gets bet big late. This means the horse that you like will rise exponentially in value
5. Stick with an established game plan: What do you hope to accomplish on any given day betting the horses? How much will you bet per race? How many races will you play? If you win big early will you walk? Press? If you lose by a nose will you lose your composure and deviate from your plan? Every player has his own needs and levels of comfort, therefore plans will vary. Be disciplined!
6. Treat race as its own entity: Focus in boxlike compartments. Anything that happened prior to this event should have no impact on the way you approach this race. Don’t carry the baggage of a tough beat. If the sure thing you had in the previous race didn’t run to your expectations, so what?!
7. Streaks are a reality: If you’ve lost 10 in a row are you likely to win the 11th tine? Probably not. Bet less money when you are having problems picking winners. Conversely, it is possible to get hot beyond your wildest expectations. This is true with jockeys and trainers as well. Be aware of who is going good, for they are more likely than not, to continue their winning ways.
8. Document your selections: Write down all bets that you make by type of bet, result, odds, distance of race. Review periodically to see what your betting strengths and weaknesses are. Do you make most of your money from maidens? claimers? allowance? stakes runners? sprints or routes? dirt or turf?
9. Have an Opinion: Many horseplayers make the mistake of being talked out of their selections. If you’re going to play this game successfully you must weigh all relevant factors prior to a race, come to an. opinion, and stick with it. Don’t be swayed by late money coming in on a horse that isn’t yours, as these horses are losing at every track, every day. If your opinion is to pass the race, then do so with confidence, but if your selection meets your criteria to play it, go for it. The worst feeling you’ll ever have is getting off your horse, onto another and seeing your original selection romp home.
10. Look for phony favorites: Usually at least once on every race card you’ll find a horse going off as the favorite, that really has a slim chance of winning. This is a great betting opportunity for those players that can find the legit contenders. A horse may have won its last race by 5 lengths due to the fact that it was able to get an easy lead. Or the horse closed strongly into a hotly contested front end battle. The horse may be plunging in class after many lackluster efforts. Or the horse may simply bounce off of a career best race. It takes experience to spot these phony favorites, but the astute pro makes his living off betting against them.

[not-level-visitors]

11. Watch races for future bets: Even If you don’t have a betting Interest In a race, It doesn’t mean you close your eyes and ears. Many a winning wager has been cashed by noticing something in a race that may not show up in the Racing Form. Make a note of the unusual trouble, be it, being blocked, checking sharply, bad break from the gate, didn’t change leads, etc. Keep a log of these horses and pay special attention to them the next time they run, this trip handicapping can often return a nice mutual.
12. Straight bets are to win only: When you bet a horse to win in a race you know what the return will be. An 8-1 shot will return anywhere between $18.00 and $19.80. If you bet that 8-1 shot to place, the price is contingent on the favorite finishing third or worse. If an 8/5 favorite beats your horse for the money you may only get $5.00 back. To cover your win bet you’re better off playing your 8-1 shot underneath a few others in an exacta, never bet to place or show!
13. Single legitimate favorites in pick threes or pick fours: Sometimes you can’t deny a horse that is clearly better than the field in which he is entered today. You know that the horse will go off at 3/5 and blitz the field with ease. If you see a sequence of races that has one or two of these horses, single them and spread out in the other races. I would do this only if I thought there was a good chance the other races in the sequence will produce a longshot, you can get value out of short priced winners by betting smart.
14. Most pick six cards ate unplayable: Every player dreams of the big score. If you look at most typical pick six sequences they’ll have races for first time starters and stakes events in which there are 4 or 5 legit contenders. Even when you cover them you’re not confident. I used to sit with a guy named George at Golden Gate Fields back in the 1980’s. One day George had a live pick 6 ticket going Into the 9th race, a 6 furlong claiming event that had a favorite that looked best and went off at 3/2. George had singled this horse and stood to be the only winner of the pick six that day, as longshots came in all day. This horse broke in the air at the start but came rushing home only to lose by a neck. George lost $800,000 by that neck. I told him that it’ll all even out in the end, but he didn’t buy that. The man proceeded to obsess on pick sixes in subsequent days and eventually disappeared. Don’t become enamored with the big score!
15. Recognize an unplayable race: This is the most important bit of intuition a horseplayer possesses. the ability to differentiate between a good bet and a bad one separates the winning horseplayer from the failure. Some races are either too contentious or there isn’t enough Info to garner an opinion. Learn to love to pass races In these circumstances.
16. Know when to plunge: The selection that you’ve come up with in a race only has to beat that field, not the world. When all factors have been evaluated and your horse stands out, bet it up, down and sideways. A great score at a nice mutual can make up for any number of mistakes. Plunging, means to bet this horse straight up to win, daily doubles, exactas, trifectas, pick 3 or 4’s. This confidence comes with experience and is the difference in the bottom line.
17. Control your emotions; My pet peeve is when one of my live selections is blocked, or ridden in a horrible manner, thereby compromising the horses’ chances of winning. Get over it. It is part of the game and we must live with it. Don’t carry this baggage over to coming events. Don’t get too high when you win; or too low when you lose. A cool head means money in the bank.
18. Trust your gut; Innate intuition is hard to describe, but every successful person possesses it. This is the intangible that can make a person great at their chosen profession. If you see something that looks too good to be true, it often is. In converse, if you have some contrarian in you, going against the pack can sometimes be quite lucrative. Experience and confidence allows one to trust their gut for success beyond their wildest dreams.
19. Capitalize on public betting mistakes: The game of pari-mutual wagering pits the players against each other. Bettors establish their opinions with money, which sets the odds for every horse in every race. What are the chances that the masses would be right very often? One In three favorites win races throughout the world over a period of time. Sure there may be streaks of favorites winning, but the 33% is time tested. That leaves the astute player with an opportunity to take advantage of higher odds on horses that actually have a good chance of winning. Know in your mind what a horse is worth before the race is run. Is my horse worth 3-1, 4-1, 5-1 If the horse goes off at 8- 1 you’ve got a nice wager
20. Importance of stalking speed: A horse that can be Involved in a race from start to finish often has an advantage over the field. Stalking speed is second tier speed, sitting just off the front runners, waiting for a weakness and pouncing at the appropriate time. This style allows the horse to stay out of trouble, as he doesn’t have to gun to the lead to establish position, or come from out of it. The horse will not need to navigate around a myriad of horses. A horse sitting third behind two front runners is often the best of bets at any track.
21. Class rules In maiden rates: A trainer will usually put a first time starter in a race a little tougher, but not so tough that it will discourage the horse from competing. Many times you’ll see a horse run poorly in a straight maiden event and come back in a claiming race for maidens. Look out! This is often the most powerful move a trainer can make and the odds can be phenomenal. Especially if you see the horse had a troubled trip In the straight maiden race i.e., broke from the rail in a sprint, broke poorly, blocked or forced to take up at some point in the race.
22. Don’t become emotionally attached to a horse; The best example would be this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Zenyatta was attempting to make history that day and went off the favorite in a field of very competitive colts. This mare may very well be the greatest female racehorse ever, but It wasn’t a great bet on that day. Zenyatta was probably the best horse that day, but finished second by a neck to a colt that would’ve been 9/5 on any other day, but went off at 5-1. Don’t bet a horse just because you know the owner or want It to win for some emotional reason.
23. Don’t be afraid to lose: Sometimes a horseplayer will try to figure out how he will get beat In a race instead of who he confidently thinks will win. You must fight this psychological phenomenon as it can be ruinous to your success.If a horse meets all of your criteria, bet it and live with the consequences. Win or lose you must accept the fact that you have no control over events. You will have your share of losses over time. Get over It!
24. Avoid seemingly unbeatable short priced favorites: The ‘sure thing’ is something that every human being embraces as a positive. Have you ever heard the saying ‘you can beat a race,  but you can’t beat the races’? Well, turn that around 180 degrees and you get the truth. You can beat the races, but you can’t beat a race. Anything can happen In a single event, but over time things even out. Any race can produce breakdowns, stumbles, poor breaks from the gate, stirrups slipping, blocked, steadied, or the horse just doesn’t feel his best on that day. That’s why value reigns supreme.
25. Track biases are overrated and usually don’t exist. Everybody wants to be a wise guy and think they have an edge. Back in the day, real biases occurred when there were downpours and the rail was not the place to be. You could see jockeys take their mounts outside to find good footing. In these days tracks are maintained better and the surface is more even. Don’t believe it when someone says speed is holding or quitting, closers are winning etc. The result is determined by the pace of the race and nothing else wise guy.
26. Don’t bet jockeys: The best jockey in the world only wins 3 of 10 mounts. There have been times in the history of racing when jockeys got extremely hot and dominated meets. Back in the 1970’s and 80’s Angel Cordero owned the New York circuit. I cut my teeth on the Northern Cal circuit and the dominance of Russell Baze. The fact is that the public hammers the hot jockey below the legit chances of the mount and makes it unplayable. Most jockeys at any track are capable of winning any given race if they’re on the right horse.
27. Pace makes the race – ALWAYS: Find the early speed types in a race and you’ll have a firm grasp on what the pace will be like. If a few horses in a sprint readily run 22 and 45 flat at the quarter and half then you have a hotly contested early duel. Second tier speed or a closer would have a good chance to pass tiring horses. However, if only one horse in that race can run the fast early fractions, said horse has an outstanding opportunity to wire the field. This is the best bet in racing, uncontested early speed. Apply this philosophy to any distance at any track.
28. Gameness (heart) is the most important intangible in a thoroughbred: The great Affirmed is the last horse to win the Triple Crown of racing. His battles with the super game Alydar are legendary, in that the two battled virtually head-to-head around the track in all three events. Notice in the Racing Form which horses like to run and compete with other horses. Some horses quit or try less when challenged by other horses. Stay away from any horse that must have it their own way and is unwilling to challenge others.
29. Speed is the most important factor in a sprint race: Class is not very important in a sprint race. How fast can the horse run? And can he replicate his best effort. You’ll often see a sharp sprinter step up in class and beat classy animals. How is the pace going to develop? You’ll often see fast horses that don’t seem to figure classwise gun to the lead and wire the field.
30. Synthetic to dirt can be a positive move: You’ll find trainers shipping to a dirt surface after having competed at a synthetic track. Some will show poor form but improve dramatically on the new surface. It’s much like someone training to run a race by running in sand and when he hits a hard track the legs kick in. Most good horses can run well on any surface, but there are some that just don’t like mud or synthetic.
31. Routers turning back to sprints can be nice bets: This is especially true when the horse in question has a hot pace to run at. These runners are usually dead fit off the route and If dropping in class will be extra tough in the lane.
32. Sprinters stretching out often go gate to wire: One reason is that other jockeys will allow the sprinter to take an uncontested lead in hopes that it will go too fast early and tire in the lane. This can be a mistake, as an uncontested lead can often allow a horse to relax out there and become bold. If the jockey out front can slow down the pace throughout, the horse will have something left and wire the field. Check out other early speed in the race to calculate the horse’s chances.
33. Bounces may occur following taxing efforts! A horse coming back off a layoff will often run his heart out due to being so fresh. This effort does not bode well for his next race. A 3 year old filly might run a game head-to head outing in a race but next out be unable to duplicate it. A horse may run a career best time in winning a race and come back next out and lay an egg. It happens!
34. A dead fit horse being raised in claiming price is often a good bet: Trainers want to ‘strike while the iron is hot’. The form of a low or medium priced claimer may be fleeting, so a horse that is running well may be put into a spot that seems to be overly ambitious. Don’t believe it; this horse is liable to be best at a decent price. This also applies to a high priced claimer jumping up to allowance company, or an allowance runner jumping to Stakes competition.
35. An irregularly run race is the strongest move in racing: Look for a running line in the form that shows a horse running forwardly early in the race, losing ground mid race and coming back on in the stretch. This is the sign of a dead fit animal that should perform well next out. Many players overlook this powerful running line and allow the horse to go off at unreasonable odds.
36. Fresh early speed types are particularly strong bets. Thoroughbreds generally run their hearts out and are hard on themselves physically. A freshening of a few months can do wonders to restore the vigor that is Inherent in a horse. First time out of the box is a great spot to capture a sprint for a speed type, as they will often clear the field and be the ‘speed-de-la-speed’ in the field. You can often get a nice price on these types.
37. Set an acceptable price line for your contenders: There is no need to set a morning line as is seen in the program. Before you look at the line set by others, find your contenders and put your own odds next to it. Will you accept 3/2, 5/2, 5-1?
38. Don’t split hairs in your handicapping. Value reigns: If you have two contenders that are very close in your mind and one is 3/ 1, appearing slightly best, and the other going off at 8-1, bet the longer priced horse. You’ll be wrong sometimes, but go with the value. A length can be made up in a race any number of ways, so the absolute best horse in a race can lose.
39. Don’t try to train the horse too: The trainer is paid to win races for the owner that hires him or her. Said trainer will occasionally make equipment changes, class evaluations, workout methods or medication choices. Simply look at that trainer’s bottom line to see if they’re successful. Don’t try to second guess these pros, as you’ll be wrong most of the time.
40. Horses that don’t like to win must be avoided: I think that some thoroughbreds just don’t understand the game. Some horses are perfectly content running with other horses and will actually pull themselves up near the wire, so as not to win. You can spot these horses in the Form and they can be very good bets to the underside of exactas and trifectas, but will be murderous to your pick sequence tickets, as they will not win.
41. Bet the same amount on win bets for favorites and longshots: Just because a horse goes off at long odds, It doesn’t mean the horse can’t win. Don’t assume that because a horse is 3-1 it has a better chance to win. The fact is that a longshot can make up for many mistakes, and must be covered with the appropriate amount. Remember that hitting one 12-1 shot is equal to hitting four 3-1 shots.
42. Never bet a horse to win unless they go off at 3-1 or higher: If you love a horse at 5/2 or lower, bet it on top in exactas, trifectas, dally doubles, pick 3, 4 or 6’s. This goes back to the ‘value reigns’ philosophy and is tried and true for most players.
43. Don’t box three horses in exactas: Have an opinion (Axiom #9), Take your top choice and play it to other choices forward and backward. The box is a lazy play that says ‘I shouldn’t be playing this race, but I’ll take a flier on it anyway’.
44. Visual kidney or neck sweat isn’t positive: If you see any white substances on your horse before the running of a race, beware. It’s true that worked up or sweating horses win every day, but they are the exceptions and not the rules.
45. Dapples on the coat and dancing on toes in post parade are great signs: A healthy and willing thoroughbred is fairly easy to spot. Does the horse look like it wants to run today? I don’t like to see a horse with their head down in the post parade. I’m not going to bet on Eeyore to win a race, no matter how good their form is. Dapples are circular impressions on the coat.That is a sign of the thoroughbred that is well cared for and healthy. Also look for muscle definition.
46. Some horses hate mud: Just one more thing to look for in a horse. This can also be true of synthetic surfaces. Usually a great mudder will pass that ability onto its progeny, but not always. Check the Racing Form for wet record. This does not apply to sloppy tracks, as that is another type of track altogether. The slop can be particularly advantageous to front runners. Horses might not like having stuff thrown into face, problems getting hold of the track, etc.
47. The rail can be a bad spot to break from: Especially in a sprint. Unless a horse has high early speed, it will find Itself behind horses early and things must go perfectly from then on for that horse to find room to run. A horse that is forced to battle head-to-head from the rail must be super game to have any chance. A closer must navigate thru others to get free.
48. Don’t crave action: The only way to be successful at this game, for most people, is to pick your spots. Playing every race is a sure fire way to financial ruin. Find a different venue to satisfy your adrenaline rush.
49. Stay focused; Pay attention to the task at hand. There is a lot of action at the local race track, betting parlor, race book, etc. Back in the day, we had one race per half hour and it was easy to concentrate. Nowadays, there are multiple tracks concurrently running throughout the course of a long day and it takes extreme discipline so as not to miss anything.
50. Don’t become intoxicated with winning: It’s easy to deviate from your game plan after having just hit a nice one. It’s human nature to love that winning feeling and to want to replicate that win as soon as possible. Please realize that we must maintain discipline to be successful and winning cannot be forced. Enjoy your victory and move on.

[/not-level-visitors]